Crypto's influence on the 2024 US election: Trump vs. Harris, prediction markets, and digital currency's political impact.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, it's hard to ignore the impact cryptocurrency is having on political campaigns. With Donald Trump leading in prediction markets and both major parties courting the crypto community, digital assets are changing the game. This article takes a closer look at how crypto is becoming a key player in American politics, shaping voter engagement and campaign tactics. We'll also explore the role of platforms like Polymarket and the pro-crypto positions of candidates like Trump and Kamala Harris.
Prediction markets, especially Polymarket, are gaining popularity for their ability to forecast election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls. According to Newsweek, betting odds have correctly predicted winners in 77% of elections over the last 35 years—including tight races like those in 2012 and 2000. The notable exception was in 2016 when both betting markets and polls underestimated Trump's chances.
These markets have some advantages over conventional polling methods. For one, they quickly adjust to significant events—like candidate endorsements or major political shifts—reflecting changes faster than polling data can catch up. Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, points out that these markets have historically been more accurate at capturing such dynamics.
Moreover, participants in prediction markets have financial stakes involved, making their predictions often more reliable than those given to pollsters. As Polymarket puts it: "People are more truthful with their money than they are with their mouths."
Donald Trump has recently rebranded himself as a pro-crypto candidate, vowing to make America the "crypto capital of the planet" if he regains office. This pivot seems strategically aimed at winning over a crypto community that has emerged as a significant financial force in this election cycle.
Crypto companies have become dominant corporate spenders this election season, pouring over $119 million into federal elections through various channels—including a non-partisan super PAC called Fairshake. This influx of cash is unprecedented; crypto corporations account for nearly half of all corporate donations this cycle. Trump's campaign appears well-positioned to benefit from this financial support.
After an Oct. 5 rally in Butler, Pennsylvania—where Trump hinted at revisiting Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht's case but made no direct comments on crypto—his lead on Polymarket grew to 8.6%. That’s his largest advantage since Kamala Harris entered the race.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris's campaign launched an initiative called Crypto4Harris back in August aimed at engaging with the crypto community and countering Republican efforts to attract those voters. The goal seems clear: develop a pro-crypto policy framework that could potentially mend Harris’s somewhat rocky relationship with the industry.
Interestingly enough, there seems to be an internal division within the crypto industry itself regarding partisan affiliations. While many leaders supporting GOP candidates promise favorable policies are emerging from that camp, some Democratic crypto lobbyists worry about an apparent lean toward right-wing factions—especially given President Biden's administration’s skeptical stance on digital assets.
Both major presidential candidates seem aware of cryptocurrency's growing influence; while Trump has openly embraced it, Harris appears to be softening her stance after initially being vague about her position.
The substantial financial backing from crypto firms aims not just at influencing immediate outcomes but also at securing long-term favorable regulatory environments. This strategy seems effective; some lawmakers are visibly softening previous hardline stances against digital currencies.
As we approach Election Day in November 2024, one thing becomes increasingly clear: cryptocurrency is not merely an electoral issue for tech-savvy voters—it may well be reshaping entire campaign strategies as we speak.
